2016年中国经济的五个基本趋势
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2.25pt;text-indent:12.75pt;mso-char-indent-count:1.13;line-height:24.0pt"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">中国经济正在过一个大坎。许多对于中国经济的未来预测，在现实的经济运行业绩面前屡屡食言。比如有的预言中国经济将会继续保持</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">8%</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">的增长率，但是实际上是朝着</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">7%</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">6%</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">的趋势下行。再如有的预言中国经济将会出现一场危机，但是现实是只有困难而无危机。为什么会这样？其实自从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2011</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年经济增长速度开始下行之后，中国经济就开始了新一轮的结构调整。而对于一个处于结构转型期的世界第二大经济体而言，常规的宏观经济分析均宣告失灵。认识当前的中国经济走势，需要坚持运用结构分析的思维眼光来看待。从结构分析的视角来看，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2016</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年的中国经济将会有如下五个基本趋势的出现：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black"> 第一，传统产业进入深度调整区间。钢铁、煤炭、建材等产能过剩的产业会继续去库存减产能，其中会出现多种分化：一部分传统产业全行业经过调整进入正常业态，如房地产；一部分传统产业经历升级逐步走出低谷，如汽车、家电；更有一部分传统产业继续收缩，如钢铁、煤炭。传统产业中的大批僵尸企业，是无法逃过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2016</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black"> 第二，新兴产业将会持续保持增长的势头。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2015</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年国家推出的《中国制造</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2025</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">》战略已经公布，需要在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2016</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年落实。值得注意的是，目前电商、微商在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">“</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">互联网</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">+”</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">的战略激励之下，已经开始出现良莠不齐的乱象。这表明，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2016</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年必须加强新兴产业的行业自律和行业监管，建立新兴产业的可持续发展环境和机制越来越重要。同时，即使新兴产业也需要通过企业兼并实现发展，因此</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2016</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年将会出现一批新兴产业企业的资本兼并重组。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black"> 第三，城市化进程将提速。自</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2014</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年国家新型城镇化规划推出之后，为稳妥推进这项巨大的系统化工程，国家选择了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">66</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">个试点城市进行综合试点。经过一年多的试点，积累了一定的经验，各项配套改革措施也相继出台，这都为新型城镇化提速推进创造了必要的条件。另外，城镇化提速也有利于化解部分传统产业产能过剩问题。因此，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2016</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年各项有利于城镇化的措施出台必然会掀起新一轮的消费和投资小高潮。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black"> 第四，资本市场重新活跃。本来</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2015</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年将是自</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2008</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年资本市场高潮之后的又一高潮，但是发生在年中的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">A</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">股股灾打断了这个势头。股灾暴露出我国资本市场存在的深层问题，涉及官员贪腐、券商违规、政策失误等多个方面问题。随后的行业整顿和追查，以及政策完善，使得资本市场开始步入正轨。中国的金融改革和市场化发展是持续的过程，随着人民币被纳入国际货币基金组织特别提款权（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">SDR</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">）货币篮子之后，这个进程将会进一步加快。因此受多种利好因素刺激，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2016</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年的股市及整个资本市场将会活跃，再上新的台阶。目前中国经济基本面稳定，国际资本依然看多中国市场。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black"> 第五，对外经贸出现新的增长。有利于这个增长的主要因素是：其一，世界经济继续处于复苏通道上，没有逆行可能。其二，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">“</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">一带一路</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">”</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">效应开始发酵，中国与沿线国家的经贸关系将会大大强化。其三，中韩自贸区完成了所有的法定程序，将会给中韩两国经贸关系注入动力和活力，并为中日韩自贸区的建立和周边贸易扩大带来新的增长机遇。其四，自</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">2008</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">年以来中国外向型企业调整已经大致完成，新的外向型企业在国际竞争力方面优势有所加强。其五，如果人民币纳入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black">SDR</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">的过渡期没有大的波动，控制恰当的话，目前人民币的微幅贬值将有利于改善出口状况。（作者为中国人民大学经济学院教授</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black"> </span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#828282">刘瑞</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black">）</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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